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HomeMy WebLinkAboutAppendix  Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area       urban advisors ltd   Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area     Introduction     The  purpose  of  this  document  is  to  provide  basic  market  information  in  beginning  the   process  of  updating  the  Georgetown  Downtown  Master  Plan.  It  offers  an  overview  of   population  change,  income  change,  housing  preferences,  and  opportunities  for  retail   and  employment  in  downtown,  for  use  during  early  workshops.  As  the  project   continues,  more  specific  information  will  be  added  to  produce  a  more  complete  market   study.       Fundamentals:  Demographic  Change  and  Housing     Population  and  household  change  is  show  in  the  following  table.       Georgetown,  TX         Population  and  Households  Census    2012  2017  Change   2012-­‐17   Population  47,400  50,333  57,588    7,255     Households  18,830  19,914  23,000    3,086     Families  13,418  14,164  16,534    2,370     Non-­‐Families  5,412  5,750  6,466    716     Average  Household  Size  2.38  2.40  2.39    -­‐-­‐-­‐-­‐         Owner  Occupied  Housing  Units  13,712  14,700  17,251    2,551     Renter  Occupied  Housing  Units  5,118  5,214  5,749    535     Median  Age  44.1  44.7  46.3    1.6     Household  Size  of  Population  Change        2.35     Source:  ESRI  BIS  and  Urban  Advisors     Projections  for  change  from  2012  to  2017  indicate  household  growth  of  15.5  percent  for   the  City  of  Georgetown.  Non-­‐family  households  are  projected  to  grow  by  12.5  percent,   while  family  households  are  projected  to  grow  by  16.7  percent.  In  understanding  the   growth  it  is  noted  that  projections  indicate  a  slightly  smaller  household  size  than   currently  for  the  growth  alone,  while  the  average  for  all  households  remains  the  same.   One  implication  of  this  may  be  demand  for  smaller  units  than  in  earlier  decades.         Projections  of  population  by  age  indicate  that  the  largest  growth  among  cohorts  is  in   ages  55  and  older,  and  continuing  but  lower  growth  in  younger  families  with  children.      Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  2 urban advisors ltd   Georgetown,  TX          Population  By  Age  2012  2017  Change  %  Change   19  and  Under  11,856  13,297  1,441  12.2%   20-­‐34  8,079  8,787  708  8.8%   35-­‐44  5,380  5,948  568  10.6%   45-­‐54  5,634  5,924  290  5.1%   55-­‐64  6,676  7,779  1,103  16.5%   65  and  Older  12,707  15,850  3,143  24.7%      Source:  ESRI  BIS       Projections  of  households  by  income  show  that  all  of  the  projected  growth  is  in   households  with  incomes  of  $50,000  or  greater  with  the  majority  between  $50,000  and   $100,000  income  per  year.       Georgetown,  TX  Households  by  Income        Annual  Income  2012  2017  Change  %  of  Change   <$15,000  2,106  2,078  -­‐28  -­‐1.3%   $15,000  -­‐  $24,999  1,390  1,058  -­‐332  -­‐23.9%   $25,000  -­‐  $34,999  1,432  1,107  -­‐325  -­‐22.7%   $35,000  -­‐  $49,999  2,630  2,409  -­‐221  -­‐8.4%   $50,000  -­‐  $74,999  4,094  5,614  1,520  37.1%   $75,000  -­‐  $99,999  2,675  3,708  1,033  38.6%   $100,000  -­‐  $149,999  3,594  4,584  990  27.5%   $150,000  -­‐  $199,999  1,144  1,393  249  21.8%   $200,000+  849  1,049  200  23.6%   Totals  21,926  25,017  3,086  14.1%   Source:  ESRI  BIS  and  Urban  Advisors     To  further  understand  this,  the  chart  below  outlines  change  in  household  income  by  age   cohort.    Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  3 urban  advisors  ltd Source:  ESRI  BIS  and  Urban  Advisors     On  average  for  all  cohorts  combined,  38  percent  of  growth  is  in  households  between   $50,000  and  $74,999,  with  62  percent  of  households  in  income  brackets  above  that.  The   only  group  for  which  this  is  not  true  is  households  75  years  and  older  where  55  percent   of  households  are  below  $75,000.  The  fact  that  all  age  cohorts  with  income  below   $50,000  are  declining  may  indicate  a  need  for  housing  alternatives  such  as  workforce   housing  for  working  age  cohorts.  In  considering  income  change,  especially  in  relation  to   the  ability  to  support  future  retail  and  services,  it  is  useful  to  understand  whether   incomes  are  really  increasing  or  only  apparently  increasing.  The  following  table  shows   Median  and  average  household  income  change  between  2012  and  2017  and  then  the   inflation  adjusted  change.  The  table  is  based  upon  all  households  and  not  the  increment   of  growth  alone.   Georgetown,  TX  Household   Income  Change  2012-­‐2017   Age   25-­‐34   Age   35-­‐44   Age   45-­‐54   Age   55-­‐64   Age       65-­‐74   Age   75+   Median  HH  Income  Change  $6,077  $5,633  $6,373  $7,112  $8,043  $8,338   Average  HH  Income  Change  $7,326  $11,132  $11,790  $11,678  $9,391  $6,679   Median  Inflation  Adjusted  2%  $58,343  $74,851  $74,556  $73,748  $59,749  $46,122   Real  Difference  from  2012  -­‐$1,590  -­‐$4,203  -­‐$3,424  -­‐$2,579  $192  $2,277   Average  Income  Adjusted  2%  $69,986  $91,702  $94,935  $92,147  $77,093  $57,945   Real  Difference  from  2012  -­‐$9,197  -­‐$12,050  -­‐$12,475  -­‐$12,109  -­‐$10,131  -­‐$7,614   Source:  ESRI  BIS  and  Urban  Advisors   Annual  HH   Income  Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  4 urban advisors ltd Adjusted  median  incomes  show  an  actual  loss  in  all  age  cohorts  younger  than  65  years   and  average  income  shows  a  loss  in  all  age  cohorts.  When  this  is  considered  relative  the   household  change  by  age  showing  that  new  households  are  almost  all  in  income   brackets  above  median,  it  is  clear  that  there  is  some  room  for  additional  retail  and   services,  but  that  demand  is  based  upon  growth  rather  than  rising  wages.  This  may   reveal  a  challenge  for  future  efforts  in  providing  housing.  In  the  2012  Georgetown  2020   Comprehensive  Plan  Housing  Element,  it  was  noted  that  the  income  to  afford  a  median   price  house  in  2010  was  between  $54,100  and  $80,192,  whereas  the  highest  household   median  income  by  2017  will  vary  between  approximately  $46,000  to  $75,000.  Thus,   many  more  than  half  of  future  households  may  not  be  able  to  afford  ownership     • Financing  infill  and  downtown  style  residential  can  still,  in  the  current  economy,  be  a   challenge   • Area  growth  is  strongest  in  middle  and  upper  income  households   • There  is  strong  demand  for  rental  units  as  well  as  owner  occupied  units   • Demand  for  rental  is  not  restricted  to  lower  income  households     Area  Housing  Preferences     Drive  Time  from  City  Center            Source:  ESRI  BIS     Tapestry  lifestyle  segmentation  data  indicates  the  preferences  for  housing  types  for   residents  within  a  20-­‐minute  drive  time  from  the  study  area  who  would  consider  an   urban  lifestyle.    The  following  map  shows  a  three-­‐minute  drive  time  in  red,  a  five-­‐minute   drive  time  in  green  and  the  20-­‐minute  drive  time  in  gray.    Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  5 urban  advisors  ltd       Within  the  20-­‐minute  drive  time  households  are  projected  to  reach  approximately   1400,000  by  2017,  an  increase  of  slightly  more  than  20,000.  Approximately  70  percent   of  those  households  will  prefer  either  the  urban  outskirts  or  suburban  and  rural   lifestyles.  Tapestry  Lifestyle  segmentation  was  used  to  understand  the  housing   preferences  within  the  more  urban  lifestyle  categories.     Preferences  for  those  who  would  choose  a  more  urban  location  are  shown  in  the   following  table.         2017    Multi-­‐Family      Townhomes     Lifestyle  Category  HH  Change    Owned      Rental      Owned      Rental     Metro  Renters    223      47      176        NeWest  Residents    12      2      10        Old  and  Newcomers    87      32      55        Young  and  Restless    1,188      166    1,022        Inner  City  Tenants    136      26      110        Enterprising  Professionals    2,850      769      940      513      627     Aspiring  Young  Families    1,262      364      394      242      263     Totals/Average  Pricing    5,758      1,406    2,707      755      890     Source:  ESRI  BIS       As  in  many  regions,  the  largest  preference  is  for  single-­‐family  homes,  but  out  of  total   demand  there  is  still  significant  demand  for  townhomes  and  multi-­‐family  both  rented   and  owned.  Based  upon  income  change  these  other  units  will  not  necessarily  be  low-­‐ income  units,  but  will  need  to  be  a  mix  to  appeal  to  young  people  of  a  variety  of   incomes,  empty  nesters,  and  family  households.       Retail  Fundamentals     The  following  tables  enumerate  retail  demand  and  supply  by  drive  time  from   Courthouse  Square.  The  first  table  is  for  a  three-­‐minute  drive  time  indicating  demand   and  supply  with  a  bicycling/walking  distance.  The  second  is  a  drive  time  of  five  minutes,   a  typical  distance  for  gauging  local  support  for  a  neighborhood  center  for  instance.  The   third  table  is  a  drive  time  of  20  minutes,  a  typical  drive  time  for  more  destination   oriented  offerings  such  a  restaurants,  entertainment,  and  in  particular,  vital  main  street   districts  that  allow  walking,  shopping,  eating  and  an  attractive  public  space.  In  the    Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  6 urban advisors ltd tables,  the  numbers  in  green  are  those  where  demand  is  greater  than  supply,  meaning   that  there  may  be  an  opportunity  for  new  or  improved  business.     Main  Street  Business  Types        3  minute  Drive  Time  Demand  Supply  Gap/Surplus   Furniture  &  Home  Furnishings  Stores  $726,011  $2,175,043  -­‐$1,449,031   Electronics  &  Appliance  Stores  $921,025  $118,256  $802,769   Bldg  Materials,  Garden  Equip.  &  Supply  $1,018,893  $9,607,044  -­‐$8,588,151   Grocery  Stores    $5,295,113  $1,291,073  $4,004,040   Specialty  Food  Stores    $161,231  $430,756  -­‐$269,524   Beer,  Wine  &  Liquor  Stores  $239,171  $1,112,265  -­‐$873,094   Health  &  Personal  Care  Stores  $2,399,256  $1,131,845  $1,267,411   Clothing  Stores    $1,415,596  $1,193,859  $221,737   Shoe  Stores    $240,511  $151,261  $89,250    Jewelry,  Luggage  &  Leather  Goods    $285,385  $1,825,125  -­‐$1,539,739   Sporting  Goods/Hobby/Musical  Instr    $618,580  $737,097  -­‐$118,517   Book,  Periodical  &  Music  Stores    $204,311  $332,551  -­‐$128,240   General  Merchandise  Stores  $5,689,198  $1,344,323  $4,344,875   Florists    $35,800  $75,495  -­‐$39,695   Office  Supplies,  Stationery  &  Gift  Stores    $198,157  $143,325  $54,833   Used  Merchandise  Stores    $176,614  $2,253,051  -­‐$2,076,437   Other  Miscellaneous  Store  Retailers    $451,700  $1,096,330  -­‐$644,631    Full-­‐Service  Restaurants  $1,381,023  $3,942,163  -­‐$2,561,140   Limited-­‐Service  Eating  Places    $1,804,186  $3,674,986  -­‐$1,870,800   Special  Food  Services    $96,746  $2,849,395  -­‐$2,752,649   Drinking  Places  -­‐  Alcoholic  Beverages    $237,446  $149,307  $88,139       The  three-­‐minute  drive  time  revels  only  a  few  underserved  categories.  But  grocery,   apparel  and  general  merchandise,  with  automobile  access  to  increase  the  market   penetration,  may  be  viable.                          Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  7 urban  advisors  ltd       Main  Street  Business  Types        5  minute  Drive  Time  Demand  Supply  Gap/Surplus   Furniture  &  Home  Furnishings  Stores  $1,844,676  $5,746,052  -­‐$3,901,377   Electronics  &  Appliance  Stores  $2,324,602  $1,429,471  $895,132   Bldg  Materials,  Garden  Equip.  &  Supply    $2,579,048  $14,900,958  -­‐$12,321,909   Grocery  Stores    $13,099,932  $2,559,797  $10,540,136   Specialty  Food  Stores    $399,022  $1,277,721  -­‐$878,699   Beer,  Wine  &  Liquor  Stores  $602,111  $1,362,674  -­‐$760,564   Health  &  Personal  Care  Stores  $5,923,511  $5,416,024  $507,487   Clothing  Stores    $3,563,872  $2,057,775  $1,506,097   Shoe  Stores    $602,034  $151,261  $450,773    Jewelry,  Luggage  &  Leather  Goods  $732,970  $3,570,635  -­‐$2,837,665   Sporting  Goods/Hobby/Musical  Instr    $1,568,614  $2,840,711  -­‐$1,272,097   Book,  Periodical  &  Music  Stores    $507,473  $510,901  -­‐$3,428   General  Merchandise  Stores  $14,188,483  $6,893,395  $7,295,087   Florists    $87,557  $83,660  $3,897   Office  Supplies,  Stationery  &  Gift  Stores    $497,020  $260,978  $236,043   Used  Merchandise  Stores    $440,540  $2,468,531  -­‐$2,027,991   Other  Miscellaneous  Store  Retailers    $1,120,785  $1,533,516  -­‐$412,731    Full-­‐Service  Restaurants  $3,487,854  $6,076,108  -­‐$2,588,254   Limited-­‐Service  Eating  Places    $4,552,259  $9,158,655  -­‐$4,606,396   Special  Food  Services    $245,222  $2,876,817  -­‐$2,631,596   Drinking  Places  -­‐  Alcoholic  Beverages    $606,811  $428,671  $178,140       The  five-­‐minute  drive  time,  like  the  three  minute  drive,  shows  demand  for  grocery,   apparel  and  general  merchandise  stores.                            Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  8 urban advisors ltd       Main  Street  Business  Types        20  minute  Drive  Time  Demand  Supply  Gap/Surplus   Furniture  &  Home  Furnishings  Stores  $92,458,146  $67,841,834  $24,616,312   Electronics  &  Appliance  Stores  $115,064,011  $107,097,999  $7,966,013   Bldg  Materials,  Garden  Equip.  &  Supply    $130,030,291  $143,843,884  -­‐$13,813,593   Grocery  Stores    $626,554,068  $491,503,844  $135,050,224   Specialty  Food  Stores    $19,041,792  $12,213,969  $6,827,823   Beer,  Wine  &  Liquor  Stores  $29,700,036  $14,449,305  $15,250,731   Health  &  Personal  Care  Stores  $287,202,811  $325,730,381  -­‐$38,527,571   Clothing  Stores    $175,483,364  $223,924,428  -­‐$48,441,064   Shoe  Stores    $29,190,638  $52,167,170  -­‐$22,976,532    Jewelry,  Luggage  &  Leather  Goods   Stores  $37,882,835  $43,417,518  -­‐$5,534,683   Sporting  Goods/Hobby/Musical  Instr    $77,255,841  $66,079,055  $11,176,786   Book,  Periodical  &  Music  Stores    $24,558,046  $23,849,283  $708,763   General  Merchandise  Stores  $687,658,091  $570,164,819  $117,493,272   Florists    $4,245,592  $1,415,888  $2,829,704   Office  Supplies,  Stationery  &  Gift  Stores    $24,512,320  $19,328,986  $5,183,334   Used  Merchandise  Stores    $21,478,244  $10,962,645  $10,515,598   Other  Miscellaneous  Store  Retailers    $54,553,853  $48,187,257  $6,366,596    Full-­‐Service  Restaurants  $171,743,314  $95,529,939  $76,213,375   Limited-­‐Service  Eating  Places    $223,852,802  $145,959,738  $77,893,064   Special  Food  Services    $12,109,856  $7,383,350  $4,726,506   Drinking  Places  -­‐  Alcoholic  Beverages    $30,700,245  $9,736,180  $20,964,065         The  20-­‐minute  drive  time  shows  support  in  numerous  categories.  At  this  extended  drive   time,  however,  capture  by  any  business  in  downtown  Georgetown  will  be  far  less  than   for  the  three-­‐minute  an  five-­‐minute  drive  times.  To  illustrate  this,  the  following  table   was  prepared  based  on  2017  population  and  2017  household  incomes  adjusted  for   inflation.  It  shows  an  estimate  of  uncaptured  demand  produced  by  population  growth   with  capture  rates  for  each  of  the  drive  times.                Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  9 urban  advisors  ltd Potential  Demand  Change  2012-­‐2017  3  Minute  3  to5  Minute  5  to  20  Minute   Georgetown  Downtown  Capture  60%  Capture  30%  Capture  2.5%   Furniture  &  Home  Furnishings  Stores    -­‐          -­‐        $1,215,140   Electronics  &  Appliance  Stores  $614,961  -­‐$182,020  $1,742,497   Bldg  Materials,  Garden  Equip.  &  Supply    -­‐          -­‐        $498,106   Grocery  Stores    $3,168,780  $919,715  $9,689,483   Specialty  Food  Stores      -­‐          -­‐        $294,211   Beer,  Wine  &  Liquor  Stores    -­‐          -­‐        $573,918   Health  &  Personal  Care  Stores  $1,107,688  -­‐$536,519  $2,543,968   Clothing  Stores    $337,920  $365,953    -­‐         Shoe  Stores    $88,359  $89,450    -­‐          Jewelry,  Luggage  &  Leather  Goods      -­‐          -­‐        $107,361   Sporting  Goods/Hobby/Musical  Instr    $18,416    -­‐        $798,958   Book,  Periodical  &  Music  Stores      -­‐        $34,861  $177,016   General  Merchandise  Stores  $3,430,317  -­‐$238,352  $7,397,847   Florists      -­‐        $7,361  $98,282   Office  Supplies,  Stationery  &  Gifts  $61,579  $44,384  $288,583   Used  Merchandise  Stores      -­‐          -­‐        $402,209   Other  Miscellaneous  Store  Retailers      -­‐          -­‐        $513,030    Full-­‐Service  Restaurants    -­‐          -­‐        $3,019,353   Limited-­‐Service  Eating  Places      -­‐          -­‐        $3,399,354   Special  Food  Services      -­‐          -­‐        $196,714   Drinking  Places  -­‐  Alcoholic  Beverages    $87,249  $9,108  $723,240       The  estimate  of  support  for  retail  based  upon  household  change  shows  that  with   planning  for  increased  residential  use,  there  could  be  support  for  placement  of  some   amount  of  new  retail  in  the  area.  The  highlights  for  retail  are  that:     • If  a  core  retail  area  can  be  planned  in  combination  with  residential  nearby  there  may   be  demand  for  around  90,000  square  feet  of  new  retail.   • There  may  be  support  for  a  small  to  medium  size  grocer   • There  appears  to  be  support  for  restaurants   • There  is  demand  for  apparel  and  related  services   • There  is  demand  for  household  furnishings  and  equipment   • There  is  demand  for  categories  that  are  typically  combined,  such  as  drugs,  photo,   and  personal  care  products.   •  There  is  demand  for  electronics,  television,  and  computers,  but  the  categories  may   need  to  be  combined  to  support  a  shop  in  the  face  of  competition  from  large   regional  retailers  making  this  sector  difficult  locally.      Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  10 urban advisors ltd • As  with  housing,  a  barrier  to  new  business  despite  market  trends  is  the  current  lack   of  financing.  New  businesses  are  risky  and  are  currently  finding  difficulty  in  financing   and  equity  requirements  to  allay  risk.         Employment  in  Georgetown     Georgetown  has  a  vital  economy  with  over  20,000  jobs  within  the  city  according  to   Census  data.  The  question  is  whether  more  of  those  jobs  can  be  attracted  to  downtown   to  increase  its  vitality  during  days  of  employment.  The  following  graphic  shows  inflow   and  outflow  of  employment  for  the  city.     Inflow/Outflow Report Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (Primary Jobs) 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 19,061 100.0% Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 15,046 78.9% Employed and Living in the Selection Area 4,015 21.1% Living in the Selection Area 14,705 100.0% Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 10,690 72.7% Living and Employed in the Selection Area 4,015 27.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011). Notes: 1. Race, Ethnicity, Educational Attainment, and Sex statistics are beta release results and are not available before 2009. 2. Educational Attainment is only produced for workers aged 30 and over. 3. Firm Age and Firm Size statistics are beta release results and are not available before 2011.  Source:  Local  Employment  Dynamics,  US  Census     This  graphic  illustrates  that  of  the  total  jobs  in  Georgetown,  4,015  are  held  by  those  who   reside  in  the  city.,  and  over  15,000  people  commute  into  the  city  to  go  to  local  jobs.  It   also  shows  that  10,690  residents  leave  the  city  every  day  to  commute  to  jobs  elsewhere.          Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  11 urban  advisors  ltd     Citywide  Inflow  Outflow  Outside  Jobs      Internal  Jobs    Internal  Jobs   Characteristics  of  Residents  %  Non-­‐residents  %  of  Residents  %   Workers  Aged  29  or  younger  2,078  19.4%  3,387  22.5%  756  18.8%   Workers  Aged  30  to  54  6,335  59.3%  8,808  58.5%  2,233  55.6%   Workers  Aged  55  or  older  2,277  21.3%  2,851  18.9%  1,026  25.6%                Earning  $1,250/month  or  less  1,783  16.7%  2,882  19.2%  922  23.0%   Earning  $1,251  to  $3,333.month  3,490  32.6%  6,246  41.5%  1,567  39.0%   Earning  More  than  $3,333/month  5,417  50.7%  5,918  39.3%  1,526  38.0%                Workers  in  Goods  Producing    1,790  16.7%  1,792  11.9%  546  13.6%   Workers  in  Trade,  Transport,  Utils  2,262  21.2%  3,070  20.4%  418  10.4%   Workers  in  All  Other  Services  6,638  62.1%  10,184  67.7%  3,051  76.0%   Source:  Local  Employment  Dynamics,  US  Census     The  next  graphic  shows  inflow  and  outflow  for  downtown  Georgetown.   Source:  Local  Employment  Dynamics,  US  Census     Inflow/Outflow Report Inflow/Outflow Job Counts (All Jobs) 2011 Count Share Employed in the Selection Area 2,202 100.0% Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 2,170 98.5% Employed and Living in the Selection Area 32 1.5% Living in the Selection Area 624 100.0% Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 592 94.9% Living and Employed in the Selection Area 32 5.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (Beginning of Quarter Employment, 2nd Quarter of 2002-2011). Notes: 1. Race, Ethnicity, Educational Attainment, and Sex statistics are beta release results and are not available before 2009. 2. Educational Attainment is only produced for workers aged 30 and over. 3. Firm Age and Firm Size statistics are beta release results and are not available before 2011.  Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  12 urban advisors ltd           This  graphic  shows  that  almost  all  jobs  in  the  downtown  are  filled  by  those  from  outside   the  downtown,  while  almost  all  downtown  area  residents  commute  to  jobs  elsewhere.     Downtown  Inflow  Outflow  Outside  Jobs      Internal  Jobs    Internal  Jobs    Characteristics  of  Residents  %  Non-­‐residents  %  of  Residents  %   Workers  Aged  29  or  younger  167  28.2%  492  22.7%  9  28.1%   Workers  Aged  30  to  54  330  55.7%  1,253  57.7%  14  43.8%   Workers  Aged  55  or  older  95  16.0%  425  19.6%  9  28.1%                Earning  $1,250/month  or  less  156  26.4%  510  23.5%  6  18.8%   Earning  $1,251  to  $3,333/month  248  41.9%  767  35.3%  12  37.5%   Earning  More  than  $3,333/month  188  31.8%  893  41.2%  14  43.8%                Workers  in  Goods  Producing    97  16.4%  67  3.1%  0  0.0%   Workers  in  Trade,  Transport,  Utils  93  15.7%  126  5.8%  1  3.1%   Workers  in  All  Other  Services  402  67.9%  1,977  91.1%  31  96.9%   Source:  Local  Employment  Dynamics,  US  Census     The  two  tables  showing  job  characteristics  that  accompany  each  graphic,  reveal  some   interesting  detail.  The  citywide  table  shows  that  residents  who  leave  for  outside  jobs  are   better  paid—slightly  over  50  percent  make  the  highest  income  category  as  opposed  to   38  percent  of  residents  who  work  within  the  city.  Downtown  shows  the  opposite  trend:   more  downtown  residents  who  go  outside  the  area  are  in  the  two  lower  income   categories  than  are  both  residents  and  non-­‐residents  who  work  downtown.  Downtown   employment  is  91  percent  services,  with  a  large  proportion  of  jobs  offering  workforce   wages  that  would  make  it  difficult  to  afford  the  median  house  price  noted  in  the   Georgetown  2030  Comprehensive  Plan  Housing  Element.     The  next  table  compares  downtown  service  employment  with  service  employment   citywide.                  Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  13 urban  advisors  ltd Service  Employment  in  Georgetown  Downtown  Citywide  Outside  of   Downtown   Information    117      191      74     Finance  and  Insurance    75      495      420     Real  Estate  and  Rental  and  Leasing    53      230      177     Professional,  Scientific,  and  Technical  Services    343      783      440     Management  of  Companies  and  Enterprises    -­‐      106      106     Administration  &  Support,  Waste  Mgmt.,  Remediation    80      277      197     Educational  Services    108      3,487      3,379     Health  Care  and  Social  Assistance    116      3,363      3,247     Arts,  Entertainment,  and  Recreation    10      401      391     Accommodation  and  Food  Services    317      1,783      1,466     Other  Services  (excluding  Public  Administration)    88      638      550     Public  Administration    701      2,337      1,636     Totals    2,008      14,091      12,083     Source:  Local  Employment  Dynamics,  US  Census           The  table  of  services  is  suggestive  in  that  there  are  items  that  could  or  should  be   downtown  but  are  not  well  represented  there.  These  include  Arts  and  Entertainment,   Accommodation  and  Food  Services,  and  Health  Care  and  Social  Assistance.  In  addition,   there  is  significant  FIRE  office  employment  that  it  may  be  possible  to  support   downtown.     As  the  project  progresses,  projections  of  future  employment  will  be  analyzed  to   estimate  the  potential  space  that  might  be  devoted  to  an  intensification  of  downtown   employment.         Conclusions     • Underlying  fundamentals  for  housing  indicate  demand  over  a  five-­‐year  period  for   more  urban  multi-­‐family  and  townhome  units  as  well  as  traditional  single  family   homes.   • Underlying  demand  for  retail  over  the  next  five  years  exists,  but  capturing  may   require  increasing  local  population  and  carefully  clustering  retail  uses  in  a  walkable   framework  for  maximum  utility.   • Employment  downtown  needs  to  be  investigated  further.  Categories  that  should  be   downtown  but  have  a  low  share  in  downtown  now  include  Arts  and  Entertainment,   Accommodation  and  Food  Services,  and  Health  Care  and  Social  Assistance      Preliminary  Market  Overview  for  the  Georgetown  Study  Area  14 urban advisors ltd • Intensification  of  land  use  in  and  surrounding  downtown,  if  accomplished   appropriately,  particularly  of  residential  use,  will  help  to  increase  the  vitality  and  the   capture  of  retail  and  services  spending  and  thus  eventually  of  employment.